Ask ten people in trucking whether there is a driver shortage and you will get ten answers. Carriers say they cannot find good drivers. Drivers say they cannot find good jobs. Both can be true at the same time.
What the industry itself says now
Every year the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) surveys thousands of carriers and drivers about the industry's biggest problems. In the 2025 survey, driver shortage fell to number 12. It was the first time in the survey's 21-year history that it dropped out of the top ten. The reason given: the freight recession, with driver employment still falling.
The top concerns instead were the economy, lawsuit abuse, insurance costs, truck parking and driver compensation.
The numbers that do not go away
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics counts about 2.2 million heavy and tractor-trailer drivers and projects about 214,500 openings every year through 2035. Most of those openings are not new jobs. They come from drivers retiring or leaving the occupation.
That is the real story: trucking does not have a shortage of people with CDLs. It has a retention problem. Large carriers have historically replaced a big share of their drivers every year, because drivers leave jobs that did not match what the recruiter promised.
So is it a good time to get into trucking?
- For experienced drivers with a clean record: yes. Carriers compete hard for you, especially for dedicated and local accounts.
- For new CDL graduates: it is harder than in 2021, but not closed. 105 of the 660 jobs in our database accept drivers with no experience, and 138 more open up at three months.
- For drivers with tickets, accidents or a DUI: your options depend on each carrier's rules, which is exactly why matching matters more than applying everywhere.
Our take
The "shortage" headline was always too simple. What drivers need is not more job ads, it is better matches: the right home time, the right freight and a carrier whose rules you actually meet. That is the gap we try to close.
Sources: FleetOwner on ATRI 2025 top issues · BLS Occupational Outlook: Heavy and Tractor-trailer Truck Drivers
Want a recruiter who answers these questions before you ask?
Tell us 4 things and we match you with CDL-A jobs you can actually get. Free for drivers.
