For three years drivers have heard the same thing: freight is soft, rates are low, be glad you have a truck. In 2026 the tone is finally changing, but not for the reason most people expect.
The short version
The market is getting better because capacity is leaving, not because shippers suddenly have more freight. At the TCA convention in March 2026, ATA chief economist Bob Costello called the recovery "painfully slow" and said it is driven by the supply side.
The data he showed:
- There were more than 42,000 fewer carriers in December 2025 than in December 2022, a drop of about 11.6%.
- Company driver employment fell about 2% in 2025, both in local and long-distance trucking.
- Class 8 tractor sales fell about 20% in 2025 after a 17.5% drop in 2024.
- Contract truckload volume in January 2026 was still about 9% below the 2022 peak.
- Spot load postings were up almost 30% year over year in January 2026.
Translation: fewer trucks are chasing roughly the same freight. That pushes rates up slowly, and the carriers that survived the downturn start hiring again.
Costs did not wait for the recovery
ATRI's research shows non-fuel operating costs hit a record of about $1.78 per mile, and insurance has risen year after year. Costello put it simply: since 2019, costs excluding fuel have grown about 26% more than revenue. "That's unsustainable."
That is why many carriers are cautious with pay raises even as freight improves. Expect raises to show up first as better lanes, more consistent miles and bonuses, and only later in base cents per mile.
What this means for you
- Dedicated and local jobs are the safest bets. Contract freight with one shipper keeps moving in a soft market. In our database, dedicated and local jobs make up more than half of all openings (164 dedicated and 110 local out of 660).
- Ask how the carrier did in 2024 and 2025. A carrier that kept its drivers busy through the downturn will probably keep you busy too.
- Do not chase the highest advertised number. In a tight-cost year, the gap between "up to" and what you actually take home is larger than usual. Ask for the average weekly pay of drivers on that account.
- New CDL holders: the window is opening again. As capacity tightens, more carriers reopen training programs. Right now 105 of the jobs in our database accept drivers with no experience.
Our take
2026 is a better year to change jobs than 2024 or 2025 were, but it is not a free-for-all. The drivers who win are the ones who pick stable freight and ask hard questions before they sign.
Sources: Truck News, Costello at TCA (March 2026) · FleetOwner on ATRI top industry issues (Oct 2025)
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